tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg July 20, 2015 5:30pm-6:01pm EDT
alix: we are moments away from the closing bell. i'm alix steel. joe: i am joe weisenthal. alix: stocks closing just under a record level for the s&p, barely holding on to its gains. commodities take the spotlight. joe: the question is "what'd you miss?". turn around big blue? we are watching apple. will it be another win or a miss? alix: the nasdaq is the story in
terms of stocks, closing at a record high. the s&p could not hold on, closing relatively flat. seven out of 10 groups in the s&p did close flat. energy was a big drag. joe: energy was part of the overall selloff in commodities. gold, oil smoked. wheat and corn taking it on the chin today. that's the other huge story we will talk about. alix: can the s&p continue to grind higher to another rally when it is led by things like utilities and consumer discretionary? joe: you have to wonder what underlying the commodities selloff. is it something darker on the horizon? alix: we will get into that deeper with gold. taking a dig into halliburton.
earnings came out earlier today. this is the number you need to know. this is the number of employees in the company. a huge drop from the fourth quarter to the first quarter. part of that means halliburton stock was up today. oil tanking, but halliburton stock up because they are saving costs. net income versus employee -- it is a fall from the first quarter. they are trying to make more for the people they actually have. joe: good for capital, bad for labor. alix: exactly. it diverges from what we've seen in the oil price. oil services companies have gotten really crushed because of cash cost. this one is holding up well. joe: the s&p 500 divided by gold -- back in the late-1990's, during
the tech bubble, people were really optimistic. we had the bad first decade of the century. stocks decline relative to gold for a long time. things were bad. people were negative on stocks. the crisis and wars and people wanted yellow rocks. the pendulum has been swinging the other way to last few years. once again, swinging back towards humanity -- human ingenuity and away from rocks. stocks still have a long way to go until they are back. alix: you love hating on the gold bug. but we are a far cry from where we were. joe: a lot more pain for them ahead. alix: we will be debating this in just a few minutes. ibm earnings crossing the tape right now. julie hyman is looking into the numbers. julie: slightly smaller drop
than had been estimated. second corner -- quarter revenue fell 13%. $20.8 billion is what the company reported, although that looks lower than the estimates i see. in line to slightly lower than had been estimated. earnings per share of $3.84, ahead of estimates, not unusual for ibm, or for most companies we talk about. the company says it does now see a modest boost in its full-year free cash flow. it had seen an unchanged number. the margin is 59.1%. the estimate was 59.3%. -- 51.3%. it reported its clout revenue and says it's up over 50%. it reiterated when it talked about before. i will see what else we can glean from this. this is the initial glance at the headlines. it looks like a mixed picture thus far for the numbers gross margin missing, earnings-per-share beating.
whether they beat or missed, earnings falling on a year-over-year basis. alix: when you take a look, what stood out to you so far? >> the analytics number stood out. it's about 20% adjusted for currency. cloud revenue is very similar to last time. the sales number, if you exclude currency, it's about flat to minus one, which is what i think most people were expecting. joe: what's the story here? when you look at this quarter, are things looking a little brighter, or does this not answer any questions? anurag: i don't think it answers any questions. it's going to take a while before you see the high-growth areas, cloud, analytics -- those able to catch up for the falling services and software business.
this is a very small portion of their total revenue at this point. alix: when you take a look at hardware revenue, down 32%, software revenue, down 10%, how much more juice are they going to have to have in the back half of the year to meet their forecast, which they did reaffirm? anurag: on the call, we will find out if the macro weakness in europe or asia had anything to do with the purchase of software or hardware. in times of economic volatility, you do see people holding back and pushing it down in the second half. joe: are you seeing anything in the report that tells us about currency? is ibm indicating anything regarding that? anurag: it had about 9% impact on the total gross. i think this is what they were expecting going in as well. joe: thanks to anurag and julie.
alix: a chief market strategist is with us. greece is finally making good on its promise, repaying about $7.4 billion to the ecb and the imf. did we ever think we would see this day? it's been a long road ahead for this country, just a week ago teetering on the brink of financial collapse. >> it does feel like greece is fading for the moment as a story. can greece stick to this program and stay in the eurozone? >> i highly doubt it. i think we wrote a piece entitled "there can never be a deal with the greeks," and that was back in 2012. the politicians just don't have control over the electorate, and you saw that with the no vote. i think it's going to be an extremely hard slog. even paul krugman, who has been on the side of the greeks the whole way through, says "i see an exit as an endgame." if your biggest proponent is saying you will not be able to make it, i guess there are not
that many people on your side. i think we learned a lot about how european politics operates in the last few weeks, and it is a sort of ugly truth now, that exit is real. i think the market needs to go through the process. understand it is not going to be another lehman event because they are going to manage it. then we could move on. then we could have an interesting qe trade in europe. which is our reflation harry theme of the year -- reflation harry theme of the year. we call it the by the dax and dollar -- the buy the dax and dollar trade. it gets derailed when you have any kind of risk off sentiment. it could have been isis, china and japan fighting with each other over an island. i think it was a difficult period for that trade.
it happened to be greece. it back and working great. alix: what keeps you up at night? for joe, it was greece for, like, five years. david: what keeps me up at night is how central bankers are ultimately going to get out of their great experiment. i worry a little bit about the fed. it keeps me up at night. i worry a little bit about the u.k. i wonder how many bumps and wiggles we will have along the way. it's one of the reasons we left the u.s. alone this year. let's watch the exit from a distance. let's not have a big s&p position. let's move over to where they are just starting qe, where we kind of have a playbook. we saw what happened. the s&p went from 800 to 2100 over the course of qe. the dollar stayed very suppressed during that time. play something we know, learn about the exit, then play the exit in europe, one in japan later.
alix: we have breaking news for you we want to go to julie hyman at our breaking news desk, looking into news concerning kkr. julie: you have an ipo from first data, which is owned by kkr. the company had been considering an ipo. first-quarter net loss was $112 million. it was trying to boost its ebitda in advance of the public offering. it is the biggest bet ever by kkr. the company's ceo since 2013 has been trying to boost profitability. it has been acquisitive, buying startups, partnering with companies like apple. first data is filing for this ipo. i'm looking at the various headlines coming out. the company's loss last year was $458,000.
gold has lost nearly 70% of its value since its peak in 2007. now, the portfolio manager for westshore funds, a gold glover and believer. and david is also still with us. in reality, look at that commercial back in 2009. gold is pretty much flat since that commercial played. what does that say to you? jim: gold hasn't lost any value. what's happened is the dollar has gotten stronger. if the dollar is the measure of all value, yes, gold is down a lot, but make gold the measured value. a dollar used to get you 0.014 of an ounce. if you look at commodities around the world, they are all down. what we really have is a global
dollar -- the strong dollar is deflationary. the fed wants inflation. how can janet yellen raise interest rates when she has a deflationary crisis around the world? joe: all of these commercials say "get into gold." and the way you set it up is as a dollar story. jim: i'm not a gold dealer. i'm an analyst. if you put the chart again, what you will see is there is a buy signal. that chart is a buy signal. last time gold was this slow relative to the s&p was a great time to buy. alix: i want to show the inverted u.s. dollar versus gold. gold's decline has been much more steep than the dollar, which said to me it is not just the dollar that is moving gold. what would you say?
david: i think there is much more to it. whether you expect real returns to be positive or negative -- there will be real returns on capital, technological advance and innovation. stocks are going to be a better investment than gold. gold is a zero real return investment. it protects you from inflation. there is no innovation in gold. a gold necklace looks exactly the same as it would on cleopatra 2000, 3000, 4000 years ago, whenever it was. if you believe in innovation, then stocks are a far better trade. if you believe we will be in the 70's and all the returns will be negative, then gold is a great trade. joe: do you not believe in innovation? jim: i love innovation. i don't necessarily believe in the dollar.
everything david says is measured in dollars. if the dollar collapses, your wealth goes away. i think that innovation is fantastic, but what's the best way to preserve wealth? you don't want to end up like those people in greece, lined up at those atms. it happened in greece, it can happen here. joe: gold people have been saying debasement, hyperinflation, dollar collapse. at what point do you say none of those things are a factor? jim: we have natural deflation and debt deleveraging. policy, money printing, currency wars, etc. -- they are pushing against each other like tectonic plates. it is an unstable equilibrium. it's going to snap. it could go either way. the longest period of sustained deflation, gold went up 75%.
1929-1933. david: it was a time as well where money was linked to gold, where the dollar was linked to gold. you can't compare a gold standard period to a non-gold standard period. jim: it was linked to gold. president roosevelt broke the link. it was not linked to gold. david: people had to pay back all of their debts in dollars that were originally marked in gold. >> that's why the president want to the gold standard. ultimately, there was a lot of inflation, which sent the gold price screaming higher at the end of the 1930's. jim: what sent the price higher was president roosevelt. it was his lucky number. it wasn't inflation. david: but that is ultimately an inflationary phenomenon. it sends you to gold.
jim: nothing happens in isolation. the government raised the price of gold. the president raised the price of gold. you wanted iron and we and cotton and they were desperate for inflation. we are getting to that point. we are in a very deflationary world. when the government becomes officially desperate for inflation, one way to get it is for the government to raise the price of gold. we might get to inflation the old-fashioned way, the loss of confidence in velocity. if we don't, we will get there the other way, which is to revalue gold. david: if we look at periods of very sustained money growth, like the 1970's or late 1930's -- jim: money growth is like a ham and cheese sandwich. money growth is the ham. you need the cheese, that's the philosophy. we don't have the philosophy now, it's psychological. we don't have that. that is psychological. alix: what's your gold price target? jim: it could go to $950. nothing has gone from $200 to
$5000 without a significant retracement along the way. you can take 1900 is a peak and it could go cap as much and then go back up. joe: did you bring us gifts? david: one of the pieces we wrote in early 2013 is "stocks are for lovers" -- joe: we've got to run. these are no hater hats. joe: we've got to run. thank you very much for joining us. that's fantastic. we can't wait to have you back. alix: there is over 3200 tons of missing gold in china. after the break, we will crack that mystery. ♪
alix: i am alix steel. joe: i am joe weisenthal. "what'd you miss?" before the break, we told you about the mysterious case of missing gold in china. alix: citi took a look at supply between 2012 and 2014 and demand and found a 3200-ton discrepancy. this is why the markets have been so bullish. joe: where is the gold? alix: no idea. alix: they said their inventory has been rising. at banks and jeweler inventory so that might be an explanation. joining us, with charts you may have missed -- steve cortez. we are 24 hours away from the apple extravaganza. talk us through some of the technicals.
it has been on performing the nasdaq. >> the nasdaq has been hot. i'm not sure if it is new delhi or new york city we are in. the nasdaq hitting all-time highs in the comp. hitting multiyear highs. what's interesting is, lately, it's been able -- the army has been advancing without the general. most of the time apple is critical to the movement of the nasdaq and and tech as a whole. that has not been the case lately. historically, qqq is driven by apple. it is the lead driver of the overall sector. joe: something's got to give. either apple is cheap or nasdaq overall is too expensive. steve: i don't think apple is too expensive by most metrics. i think tech overall is too narrow, too dependent on google, netflix, a few highflyer names. ibm is looking really poor. a lot of tech capex is suspect.
it tells me the qqq needs to come down and converge to apple. joe: this chart shows energy versus s&p, i believe against the euro? tells whether this -- what this is showing? steve: i would like traders to realize -- this goes far back, all the way back to the year 2000. what i want to convey here is if you are trading energy, you are really trading the u.s. dollar. when you are trading a lot of things, you are trading the u.s. dollar. you may think you are not a currency guy or girl, but you are. your currency relative to energy stocks relative to the s&p. over the last 15 years, an incredibly strong correlation in verse to the u.s. dollar. dollar up, energy stocks down, and vice versa. energy stocks are having a hard time. lately. i don't believe it's because the fundamentals have changed.
alix: i am alix steel. joe: i am joe weisenthal. "what'd you miss?" before the break, we told you about a cyber attack on ashley madison. it's an extra marital affairs of site. this is months after the nets a tentative plan for a $200 million public offering. they called the breach "criminal" and said no company's online assets are safe. from cyber vandalism. alix: don't miss baker hughes earnings out before the opening bell tomorrow. looking for earnings to be down 115%, sales down 36%. it's all going to be about margin pressure and expected activity. on their services. we will have a good read through on what's happening on oil services and the oil industry. joe: don't miss chipotle earnings, always fun. it's a fun company. they tell you about the money prices, consumers.
alix: it's all going to be about store openings for that place, too. that's where you get growth news for chipotle. joe: that is all for "what'd you miss?". thank you for watching. alix: we will see you back here tomorrow. ♪ ♪ (ee-e-e-oh-mum-oh-weh) (hush my darling...) (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) (hush my darling...)
man snoring (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) woman snoring take the roar out of snore. yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. city, this is "charlie rose." charley: 15 years ago, bill and linda gates created the bill and melinda gates foundation. nine years ago, warren buffett pledged part of his fortune to the bill and melinda gates foundation. the gates foundation has since become a leader in fighting global issues such as hunger, poverty infectious diseases, and education. in 2010, warren buffett, bill and melinda gates joined forces again. they created the giving pledge. it is a request for the very wealthy to pledge to give